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(GLASGOW) #COP26 SUMMIT NASA REPORT: Global Climate Change Impact on Crops Expected Within 10 Years #AceNewsDesk report

#AceNewsReport – Nov.05: Using advanced climate and agricultural models, scientists found that the change in yields is due to projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. These changes would make it more difficult to grow maize in the tropics, but could expand wheat’s growing range.

#AceDailyNews #ClimateChange Report: That may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as early as 2030 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according to a new NASA study published in the journal, Nature Food. Maize crop yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see growth of about 17%.

Lee este anuncio de prensa en español aqui.

“We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,” said lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York City. The projected maize response was surprisingly large and negative, he said. “A 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.”

Average global crop yields for maize, or corn, may see a decrease of 24% by late century, with the declines becoming apparent by 2030, with high greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new NASA study. Wheat, in contrast, may see an uptick in crop yields by about 17%. The change in yields is due to the projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, making it more difficult to grow maize in the tropics and expanding wheat’s growing range.

To arrive at their projections, the research team used two sets of models. First, they used climate model simulations from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6). Each of the five CMIP6 climate models used for this study runs its own unique response of Earth’s atmosphere to greenhouse gas emission scenarios through 2100. These responses differ somewhat due to variations in their representations of the Earth’s climate system.

Then the research team used the climate model simulations as inputs for 12 state-of-the-art global crop models that are part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), an international partnership coordinated by Columbia University. The crop models simulate on a large scale how crops grow and respond to environmental conditions such as temperature, rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide, which are provided by the climate models. Each crop species’ behavior is based on their real life biological responses studied in indoor and outdoor lab experiments. In the end, the team created about 240 global climate-crop model simulations for each crop. By using multiple climate and crop models in various combinations, the researchers were more confident in their results.

“What we’re doing is driving crop simulations that are effectively growing virtual crops day-by-day, powered by a supercomputer, and then looking at the year-by-year and decade-by-decade change in each location of the world,” said Alex Ruane, co-director of the GISS Climate Impacts Group and a co-author of the study.

This study focused on climate change impacts. These models do not address economic incentives, changing farming practices, and adaptations such as breeding hardier crop varieties, although that is an area of active research. The research team plans to look at these angles in follow-up work, since these factors will also determine the fate of agricultural yields in the future as people respond to climate-driven changes.

The team looked at changes to long-term average crop yields and introduced a new estimate for when climate change impacts “emerge” as a discernable signal from the usual, historically known variability in crop yields. Soybean and rice projections showed a decline in some regions but at the global scale the different models still disagree on the overall impacts from climate change. For maize and wheat, the climate effect was much clearer, with most of the model results pointing in the same direction.

Maize, or corn, is grown all over the world, and large quantities are produced in countries nearer the equator. North and Central America, West Africa, Central Asia, Brazil, and China will potentially see their maize yields decline in the coming years and beyond as average temperatures rise across these breadbasket regions, putting more stress on the plants.

Wheat, which grows best in temperate climates, may see a broader area where it can be grown as temperatures rise, including the Northern United States and Canada, North China Plains, Central Asia, Southern Australia, and East Africa, but these gains may level off mid-century.

Temperature is not the only factor the models consider when simulating future crop yields. Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have a positive effect on photosynthesis and water retention, increasing crop yields, though often at a cost to nutrition. This effect happens more so for wheat than maize, which is more accurately captured in the current generation of models. Rising global temperatures also are linked with changes in rainfall patterns, and the frequency and duration of heat waves and droughts, which can affect crop health and productivity. Higher temperatures also affect the length of growing seasons and accelerate crop maturity.

“You can think of plants as collecting sunlight over the course of the growing season,” said Ruane. “They’re collecting that energy and then putting it into the plant and the grain. So, if you rush through your growth stages, by the end of the season, you just haven’t collected as much energy.” As a result, the plant produces less total grain than it would with a longer development period. “By growing faster, your yield actually goes down.”

“Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies enact ambitious efforts to limit global temperature rise, global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,” Jägermeyr said. “And with the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide.”

Ellen Gray
NASA’s Earth Science News Team

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2021

Editor: Ellen Gray

Editor says …Sterling Publishing & Media Service Agency is not responsible for the content of external site or from any reports, posts or links, and can also be found here on Telegram: https://t.me/acenewsdaily all of our posts fromTwitter can be found here: https://acetwitternews.wordpress.com/ and all wordpress and live posts and links here: https://acenewsroom.wordpress.com/and thanks for following as always appreciate every like, reblog or retweet and free help and guidance tips on your PC software or need help & guidance from our experts AcePCHelp.WordPress.Com

NASA at the UN Climate Change Conference

A view of Earth at night.
Credits: NASA/Katy Mersmann

NASA is participating in the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, through Friday, Nov. 12. The COP26 summit brings parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. All events are open to the local press and will be livestreamed on

Hyperwall

At the U.S. Center, visitors can see the NASA Hyperwall, where NASA scientists will provide two live presentations per day showing how NASA’s global leadership in climate science and how our research helps model and predict ocean health, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, floods and droughts.  The presentations are mapped to the conference’s daily themes.  /feature/nasa-at-the-un-climate-change-conference

NASA will be participating in the following events:

Tuesday, Nov. 2

2 p.m. EDT (18:00 UTC): “Earth Observations to build sustainable and climate resilient cities and communities: Applying the UN Earth Observations Toolkit for Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements”

  • Event Description: Cities around the world face numerous environmental hazards—such as extreme heat events, landslides, pollution, and flooding— that they must monitor and address to reduce risks to, and enhance resilience of, their residents when it comes to climate change impacts. Earth observations help map, monitor and assess city, and other types of human settlement, environments in comprehensive ways and deliver up-to-date insights to decision makers. The Earth Observations Toolkit for Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements (https://eotoolkit.unhabitat.org) shares ready-to-use Earth observation data and tools that inform the definition and monitoring of indicators, as well as national and city experiences in using spatial data and analysis for enabling successful, evidence-based decision making. This hybrid side event shares how the Toolkit can be applied in policy areas that are important to delivering successful and sustainable cities, such as sustainable urban planning; adequate housing; access to public transport; and access to public spaces. The event brings together governments, private sector, academia, and practitioners working in the areas of human settlements, sustainability, and climate resilience.
  • Organizers: EO4SDG, GEO, UN-Habitat, University of Strathclyde, Wood Plc.
  • Connecting Details: Earth Observations to build sustainable and climate resilient cities and communities: Applying the UN Earth Observations Toolkit for Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements (Teams Meeting & Wood House, Glasgow, 16:00-18:00 GMT)

2:30 p.m. EDT (18:30 UTC): Screening of Disney/IMAX’s “A Beautiful Planet” (2016) at the Science Center. The film is an awe-inspiring journey around our planet through the eyes of NASA Astronauts aboard the International Space Station.

Saturday, Nov. 6
12:30 p.m. EDT (16:30 UTC): “Our Climate Future is Female: Women and Girls Leading Climate Action”—Leaders will to discuss how the climate crisis impacts gender equality, and how women and girls are taking action in the fight against climate change, because around the world—from rural villages to the halls of parliament—women are leading the way in designing solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will participate virtually in this panel. The event will take place in the U.S. Pavilion at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow and will be live streamed at http://youtube.com/user/theuscenter.

Tuesday, Nov. 9
11:30 a.m. EST (16:30 UTC): “Observing Our Planet,” a joint event with NASA, NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey that will outline U.S. plans to significantly enhance our ability to study the Earth from space. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will participate virtually in this panel.

Thursday, Nov. 11
8:30 a.m. EST (13:30 UTC): “Global Network to Enable Climate Change Resilience,” a joint event with NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development highlighting the SERVIR program’s work to help developing countries use information provided by Earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies.

Friday, Nov. 12
5 a.m. EST (10:00 UTC): “A Changing Arctic”—Combined event on the Arctic, including “What Happens in the Arctic Doesn’t Stay in the Arctic” and “U.S. Contributions to Arctic Research, Applications, and Decision Support”)

Last Updated: Nov 3, 2021: Editor: Brian Dunbar

#AceNewsDesk report ………….Published: Nov.05: 2021:

Editor says …Sterling Publishing & Media Service Agency is not responsible for the content of external site or from any reports, posts or links, and can also be found here on Telegram: https://t.me/acenewsdaily all of our posts fromTwitter can be found here: https://acetwitternews.wordpress.com/ and all wordpress and live posts and links here: https://acenewsroom.wordpress.com/and thanks for following as always appreciate every like, reblog or retweet and free help and guidance tips on your PC software or need help & guidance from our experts AcePCHelp.WordPress.Com

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