#AceWeatherReport – Apr.11: Department of Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Darren Klemm said towns within the red alert area would start to see the impact of the cyclone from about 4:00pm until after midnight:
Ace Weather Desk says ……….Tropical Cyclone #Seroja forecast to reach land as a category two, bringing destructive winds: A red alert has been extended to include an area south of the Carnarvon townsite to Lancelin, including the City of Greater Geraldton and Shires of Carnamah, Coorow, Chapman Valley, Irwin, Mingenew, Morawa, Northampton, Perenjori, Shark Bay and Three Springs ABC Radio Station News
The centre of Cyclone Seroja is expected to cross the coast between Kalbarri and Geraldton at around 9:00pm, with intense weather expected ahead of that.
“You cannot go outside your home,” Commissioner Klemm said.
“People must stay inside and activate your emergency plan.”Loading
WA Premier Mark McGowan also urged people to take action now.
“This is a very serious situation and people need to heed the emergency advice,” he said.
“Tropical Cyclone Seroja is like nothing we have seen before in decades.
“This is a very large storm that is posing a very serious threat. Lives and homes are at risk. We expect significant damage.
“I urge everyone to take this situation seriously. I want everyone to stay safe.”
The cyclone has intensified to a category three system and is likely to weaken to a category two before crossing the coast.What to do during a cycloneCyclones have the potential to threaten lives and cause large-scale destruction. Find out how to be prepared.Read more
A yellow alert is current for north of Carnarvon to Minilya Roadhouse, inclusive, which means there is a possible threat to homes and lives and people need to get ready to shelter.
North of this and up to Coral Bay has been given the all clear.
The Department of Communities has opened evacuation centres in Port Denison, Carnarvon and Denham.
It is forecast to bring destructive winds gusts of up to 150 kilometres per hour from Denham to Geraldton, as well as possible flash flooding close to the cyclone’s track during Sunday and Monday.
‘Avoid movement until all-clear is issued’
Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) incident controller Graham Sears told ABC Radio people subject to a red alert should shelter in a place with four solid walls and minimal windows.
“They need to go to that safe zone that they’ve identified in their house, which … might be a bathroom or passageway that has a good structure around it,” he said.
Mr Sears said people should also listen to the radio and check for emergency updates, avoiding movement until an all-clear had been issued.
“We’re asking people not to take a peek out and go for a wander until we issue the all-clear,” he said.
DFES said there may be some disruption to essential services such as power, telecommunications and water, but authorities were working to limit the disruption.
The Department of Communities has asked some residents in Denham to evacuate.
Gusts of up to 150kph forecast
Bureau of Meteorology WA manager James Ashley said it was rare for a cyclone to travel as far south as Denham and Geraldton.
“People in coastal paths — particularly in that Shark Bay, Kalbarri area — should prepare for the onset of a storm surge as the system crosses the coast, which is the piling up of water in the onshore flow associated with the system,” Mr Ashley said.
“It can push the ocean across low-lying coastal areas and produce flooding issues.”
Mr Ashley said the worst conditions are expected to last for about three hours at any given location.
The northern side of the cyclone’s track will bear the brunt of dangerous winds and heavy rain, he added.
“Because it’s moving so fast, the onset of these conditions will be quite sudden for people,” Mr Ashley said.
“It may not look too bad at a certain place, but people are warned that these conditions can deteriorate very rapidly because the system is moving so quickly.”
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Odette weakened overnight, and is set to weaken further after making contact with Cyclone Seroja.
Cyclone Seroja brewing off WA coast joined by two tropical lows
updated 8h ago
The cyclone brewing off the coast of Western Australia has now been joined by two other tropical lows nearby, adding to an already rare weather event.
Tropical Cyclone Seroja, currently a category one system, is about 670 kilometres north-west of Karratha and 650km north-north-west of Exmouth.
It is moving west-south-west at a speed of 29 kilometres per hour and is forecast to strengthen to a category two or three as it tracks over open waters, before crossing the coast between Jurien Bay and Carnarvon late on Sunday or Monday.Loading
It could bring a brief but intense period of dangerous weather to the west coast, including destructive winds, very high rainfall and higher than normal tides.
‘Two spinning tops on the table’
A second tropical low (known as 23U) that has formed nearby is expected to strengthen to cyclone intensity, and the two systems are on track to interact with one another over the next couple of days in a rare phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara Effect.
“It’s like having two spinning tops on the table,” said BOM duty forecaster Noel Pusey.
“They’re their own entity, so they can interact, but they also tend to move around each other in a little bit of a dance.Wind map showing Cyclone Seroja and tropical low off WA coast
“You don’t get doubling up of the system or anything, but you get interaction between the two.
“Eventually I think there will be just one left standing and that will be Seroja and that will be the one that comes down and crosses the WA coast later.
“It’s quite an unusual crossing for late in the season.”
BOM said 23U would most likely cross the Exmouth coast on Saturday.
Third tropical low edges closer
Overnight a third tropical low edged closer to the two existing systems but Mr Pusey said it was unlikely to add to the interaction.Loading
“There’s a tropical low out well to the west near Cocos Islands which looks like it’s slowly developing at the moment and may bring some weather to the Cocos Island region over the weekend,” he said.
“But that’s a completely separate system.”
The bureau’s James Ashley described the situation as an extremely rare weather event, which he had not witnessed in the past two decades.
“I’ve been working here in Perth for over 20 years and I’ve never seen three systems so close to being cyclones at one time,” he said.
Holidaymakers urged to ‘leave now’
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) has issued a warning to tourists spending the school holidays in the Mid West-Gascoyne and the Pilbara.
Acting Commissioner Craig Waters has urged people to reconsider their travel plans.
“We know there are many holidaymakers in the area and others making their way there, many of whom will not have experienced a cyclone before,” Commissioner Waters said.
“If you’re in a tent or caravan, you are simply not protected against the damaging winds that may hit the region.
“The size of this potential impact area is another reason to be prepared, because you may need to travel some distance before you are out of harm’s way.”Loading
He has urged people to familiarise themselves with the cyclone warning alerts.
His comments were backed by DFES Assistant Commissioner Paul Ryan, who said people needed to act quickly.
“We’re also advising that the North West Coastal Highway will possibly be closed near Minilya on Friday and you may not be able to travel south,” he said.
“You will also have tropical cyclone Seroja impacting the coastline the next day so you need to leave now because if you don’t leave now, you’ll be stuck.”
People living near Coral Bay and Jurien Bay have also been urged to prepare their properties for severe weather.
It is possible a cyclone Blue Alert will be issued for people in and around Exmouth later on Thursday.
BOM said the south-west corner of the state, including Perth, was likely to get some rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Seroja over the weekend.
Wave heights could reach 10m off west coast
Forecasters are warning of treacherous ocean conditions on the west coast, particularly around the Mid West, with modelling predicting wave heights of over 10 metres off the Abrolhos Islands and already elevated water levels made worse by storm surges.
UWA Professor of Oceanography Chari Pattiaratchi said there could be significant erosion to beaches north of Geraldton.
“We’re just coming past La Nina so we have elevated water levels already so the storm surge is going to act on top of that,” he said.
“Together with the big swell we are saying that there will be devastating effects on the beaches — lots of erosion.
“In previous cyclones we’ve had five metres vertically being taken away.”
He said Shark Bay was on track to record water levels not seen in nearly 100 years.
“So the last big recorded storm surge was in 1921 and we say that this is probably going to be comparable to that,” he said.
“[In 1921] a lot of places in Denham and some of the stations were flooded, and on the southern part of Shark Bay the water levels extended to more than 8 kilometres.”
While the Mid-West coast looks to be the worst hit, he said elevated water levels could stretch as far as Perth and high water levels could remain for two or three days.
#AceNewsDesk report ………….Published: Apr.11: 2021:
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